Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of National Association of Realtors (NAR) was at the Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum today, where he talked about current market turbulence, where the economy is heading, and what this means for the residential real estate.
Summary:
- Early this year the NAR median house price was 8% higher than last year.
- Inventory was low pre-pandemic… Lower during pandemic. Housing shortage continues.
- Interest rate is low. 30-year mortgage rate can fall further later… because of super-low-10-year Treasury yields…
- 60% of buyers, 90% of sellers believe stable price.
- Pending contracts… March pandemic shaves 20% and likely in April and May.
- Key indicator will be Days on Market. If swift, then, need more listings to satisfy demand. If lingering, then, trouble with demand So far, below midprice homes are moving fast
- 2025-2030 Delayed Inflation for future possibilities: Inflation rate: 4% to 7%; Mortgage rate: 6% to 9%; Home sales: Negative; Homeownership Rate: 62%; Home price appreciation: 5% to 10%; College Tuition, Medical Expenses: Rising; Income, Rent, Food: Rising; Mortgage payment for those who locked rates in 2020-21: Not Rising
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