Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of National Association of Realtors (NAR) was at the Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum today, where he talked about current market turbulence, where the economy is heading, and what this means for the residential real estate.

Summary:

  • Early this year the NAR median house price was 8% higher than last year.
  • Inventory was low pre-pandemic… Lower during pandemic.  Housing shortage continues.
  • Interest rate is low.  30-year mortgage rate can fall further later… because of super-low-10-year Treasury yields…
  • 60% of buyers, 90% of sellers believe stable price.
  • Pending contracts… March pandemic shaves 20% and likely in April and May.
  • Key indicator will be Days on Market.  If swift, then, need more listings to satisfy demand. If lingering, then, trouble with demand  So far, below midprice homes are moving fast
  • 2025-2030 Delayed Inflation for future possibilities: Inflation rate: 4% to 7%; Mortgage rate: 6% to 9%; Home sales: Negative; Homeownership Rate: 62%; Home price appreciation: 5% to 10%; College Tuition, Medical Expenses: Rising; Income, Rent, Food: Rising; Mortgage payment for those who locked rates in 2020-21: Not Rising

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Just watched Leslie Appleton-Young, VP Chief Economist of California Association of Realtors (CAR) spoke at a local meeting. According to a weekly survey done by CAR:

* Buyers & sellers took a time out mid-March-April
* Sellers cancelling open houses and listings – but not all
* Buyers postponing search, withdrawing offers, canceling escrow – but not all of them
* Job/Portfolio loss is chief reason for canceling escrow
* Buyers expecting prices to drop, sellers not so much
* Share of discounted listings has not budged
* Financing is the chief bottleneck in closing delays

San Mateo County Real Estate Report:
http://rereport.com/scc/print/YuliLymanSMC.pdf


Santa Clara County Real Estate Report:
http://rereport.com/scc/print/YuliLymanSCC.pdf

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